Publications

I. Haqiqi et al. Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture and irrigation water demand. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Dec 2020

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Z. Wang, J. A. Franke, Z. Luo, and E. J. Moyer. Reanalyses and a high-resolution model fail to capture the 'high tail' of CAPE distributions. Dec 2020.

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K. Schwarzwald et al. Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales. Journal of Climate, Dec 2020.

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Y. Cai. The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change. Papers 2003.01615, arXiv.org, Oct 2020.

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R. Suits, N. Matteson, E. Moyer. Energy Transitions in U.S. History, 1800-2019, Oct 2020.

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M. Barnett, W. Brock, and L.P. Hansen. Pricing uncertainty induced by climate change. Review of Financial Studies, Mar 2020.

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J. Franke et al. The GGCMI Phase II experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss, 2019.

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J. Franke et al. The GGCMI phase II emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss, 2020.

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Jägermeyr et al. A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(13):7071‐7081, Mar 2020.

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Y. Cai, J. Steinbuks, K. L. Judd, J. Jägermeyr and T. W. Hertel. Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems. Policy Research Working Papers, Feb 2020

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D. Gerten et al. Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nature Sustainability 3:200–208, Jan 2020.

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W. Brock and A. Xepapadeas. Regional climate policy under deep uncertainty: Robust control, hot spots and learning. Climate Change Economics, Dec 2019.

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S. Minoli et al. Global response patterns of major rainfed crops to adaptation by maintaining current growing periods and irrigation. Earth's Future, 7:1464–1480, Dec 2019.

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T. Kurihana et al. Cloud Classification with Unsupervised Deep Learning. 9th International Workshop on Climate Informatics, 2019.

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U.L.C. Baldos, T.W. Hertel, F.C. Moore. Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and Its Drivers. Am. J. of Ag. Econ., 101(5):1455–1472, Oct 2019.

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M. A. Haugen, M. L. Stein, R. L. Sriver, & E. J. Moyer. Future climate emulations using quantile regressions. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 5:37–55, Apr 2019.

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E. D Coffel, R. M Horton, Jonathan M Winter, and J. Mankin. Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures dampen increases in extreme humid-heat. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8):084003, Jul 2019.

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Yongyang Cai. Computational Methods in Environmental and Resource Economics. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 11:59-82, Mar 2019.

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E. Baldwin, Y. Cai, and K. Karlygash Kuralbayeva. To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, May 2019.

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Jacob Schewe, et.al. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nature Communications, 10:1005, Mar 2019.

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J. Winter, F. Bowen, T. Partridge, and J. Chipman. Future extreme event risk in the rural northeastern United States. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 109(4):1110–1130, Mar 2019.

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W. K. Huang, D. S. Cooley, I. Ebert-Uphoff, C. Chen, and S. Chatterjee. New exploratory tools for extremal dependence. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, Feb 2019.

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W. Brock and J. Isaac Miller. Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways. 2019.

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Alice Favero, Brent Sohngen, Yuhan Huang, and Yufang Jin. Global cost estimates of forest climate mitigation with albedo. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12):125002, Nov 2018.

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J. Jägermeyr and K. Frieler. Spatial variations in crop phenology pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields. Science Advances, 4(11), Nov 2018.

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M. Hamann, et.al.Inequality and the Biosphere. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 43, Oct. 2018.

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M. A. Haugen, et.al. Estimating changes in temperature distributions in a large ensemble of climate simulations using quantile regression. Journal of Climate, 31:8573–8588, Sept 2018.

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Won Chang, et.al. Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking. Climate Dynamics, pages 1–18, July 2018.

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R.Wartenburger, et.al. Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7):075001, Jun 2018.

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Brock, W., Xepapadeas, A. Regional Climate Change Policy Under Positive Feedbacks and Strategic Interactions. Environ Resource Econ 72, 51–75, May 2018.

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S. J. Kim, J. S. Baker, B. L. Sohngen, and M. Shell. Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies. Resource and Energy Economics, 53:198 – 219, May 2018.

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William Brock, Lars Peter Hansen. Wrestling with Uncertainty in Climate Economic Models. SSRN, Jul 2017. (This paper was presented at the Lindau Public Lecture Series)

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Brock and Xepapadeas. Climate Change Policy Under Polar Amplification. European Economic Review, 94:263-282, 2017.

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Tess A Russo and Upmanu Lall. Depletion and response of deep groundwater to climate-induced pumping variability. Nature Geoscience, 10(2):105–108, 2017.

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S. Sahoo et al. Machine learning algorithms for modeling groundwater level changes in agricultural regions of the U.S. Water Resources Research, 2017.

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B Schauberger et al. Consistent negative response of us crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Communications, 8, 2017.

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Christoph Müller et al. Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017.

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S Yeltekin et al. Computing equilibria of dynamic games. Operations Research, 65(2):337–356, 2017.

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J. M. Klavans, A. Poppick, S. Sun, and E. J. Moyer. The influence of model resolution on temperature variability. Climate Dynamics, 48(9-10):3035–3045, 2017.

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J R Lopez et al., Integrating growth stage deficit irrigation into a process based crop model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 243:84–92, 2017.

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R. Montella et al. Using the FACE- IT portal and workflow engine for operational food quality prediction and assessment, Submitted to Future Generation Computer Systems, 2017.

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J Durand, et al. How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric co2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield? Eu J of Agronomy, 2017.

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Cai, Y., W. Brock, and A. Xepapadeas. Climate Change Economics and Heat Transport Across the Globe: Spatial-DSICE. In ASSA Annual Meeting. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2017.

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A Galletti, et al., Numerical and implementation issues in food quality modeling for human diseases prevention. BIOSTEC 2017, page 526, 2017.

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Henderson et al. The power & pain of market-based carbon policies: global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock prod. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2017.

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A. Poppick et al. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record. ASCMO, 3:33–53, 2017.

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J B Kim et al., Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, & uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic & emissions scenarios. Env. Research Ltrs., 2017.

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Cai, Y., A. Golub and T. Hertel “Agricultural research spending must increase in light of future uncertainties” Food Policy (70):71-83, 2017

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J C Peters and T W Hertel. Achieving the clean power plan 2030 co2 target with the new normal in natural gas prices. The Energy Journal, 2017.

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E. Anderson, W. Brock, and A. Sanstad. Robust Consumption and Energy Decisions. Working paper, SSRN, 2016. 

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Evan W Anderson et al. Robust bayesian portfolio choices. Review of Financial Studies, 29(5):1330–1375, 2016.

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Elisabeth Moyer. Precipitation and atmospheric moisture transport responses to increased infrared opacity. Bulletin of the American Physical Society, 2016.

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Alan Barreca et. al. Adapting to climate change: The remarkable decline in the us temperature-mortality relationship over the twentieth century. Journal of Political Economy, 2016

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C Folberth et al. Uncertainties in global crop model frameworks: effects of cultivar distribution, crop management and soil handling on crop yield estimates. Biogeosciences Discussions 2016.

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Jingyu Bao, David J McInerney, and Michael L Stein. A spatial-dependent model for climate emulation. Environmetrics, 27(7):396–408, 2016.

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C Müller et al., Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, pages 1–39, 2016.

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Katja Frieler et. al, Understanding the weather-signal in national crop-yield variability.

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Yongyang Cai, K.L. Judd, and J. Steinbuks. A nonlinear certainty equivalent approximation method for dynamic stochastic problems. forthcoming in Quantitative Economics, 2016.

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Chang W., Stein M., Wang J.,, Kotamarthi V. R., and Moyer E. J. Changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns in changing climate conditions. Journal of Climate, 2016.

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B Liu et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, 2016

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Yongyang Cai and Alan H Sanstad. Model uncertainty and energy technology policy: The example of induced technical change. Computers & Operations Research, 66:362–373, 2016.

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William Brock and Steven Durlauf. On sturdy policy evaluation. The Journal of Legal Studies, 44(S2):S447–S473, 2015.

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Stephen R Carpenter et al. Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015.

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Delphine Deryng. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in global semi-arid areas and selected semi-arid economies. Working Paper, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), 2015.

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Delphine Deryng et al. Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising co2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change, 2016.

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Joshua Elliott. Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system. Prepared for the UK–US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, 2015.

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Katja Frieler et al. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. Earth System Dynamics, 6:447–460, 2015.

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M Glotter, E Moyer, A Ruane, and J Elliott. Evaluating the sensitivity of agricultural model performance to different climate inputs. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016.

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Thomas Hertel, U.L.C. Baldos, and D. van der Mensbrugghe. Predicting long term food demand, cropland use and prices. forthcoming in the Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2016.

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Thomas W Hertel. Food security under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6(1):10–13, 2016.

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Thomas W Hertel, Jevgenijs Steinbuks, and Wallace E Tyner. What is the social value of second generation biofuels? Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, page ppv027, 2015.

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Miriam E. Marlier, Amir S. Jina, Patrick L. Kinney, and Ruth S. DeFries. Extreme air pollution in global megacities. Current Climate Change Reports, 2(1):15–27, 2016.

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Raffaele Montella et al. Face-it: A science gateway for food security research. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 27(16):4423–4436, 2015.

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C Müller, J Elliott, J Chryssanthacopoulos, D Deryng, C Folberth, T Pugh, and E Schmid. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production. Environmental Research Letters, 2015.

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A Poppick, D McInerney, E Moyer, and M Stein. Temperatures in transient climates: improved methods for simulations with evolving temporal covariances. Annals of Appl. Stat., 10, 2016.

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Michael Glotter and Joshua Elliott. Simulating us agriculture in a modern dust bowl drought. Nature Plants, 3:16193, 2016.

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Thomas W Hertel. Land use in the 21st century: Contributing to the global public good. Review of Development Economics, 2016.

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Cai, Golub and Hertel “Agricultural Spending Must Increase in Light of Future Uncertainties” Food Policy 70:71-83, 2017

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SJC Janssen et al. Towards a new generation of agricultural system data, models and knowledge products: Information and communication technology. Agricultural Systems, 2016.

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Sasmita Sahoo, Tess Russo, and Upmanu Lall. Comment on ‘quantifying renewable groundwater stress with grace’ by Alexandra S Richey et al. Water Resources Research, 2016.

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Alan Sanstad. Abating carbon dioxide emissions from electric power generation: Model uncertainty and regulatory epistemology. The Journal of Legal Studies, 44(S2):S423–S445, 2015.

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Ying Sun and Michael L Stein. A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2015.

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Xiaohui Tian, Brent Sohngen, John B Kim, Sara Ohrel, and Jefferson Cole. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3):035011, 2016.

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Lenny GJ van Bussel et al. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 220:101–115, 2016.

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N Villoria et al. Rapid aggregation of global gridded crop model outputs to facilitate cross-disciplinary analysis of climate change impacts in agriculture. Environmental Modeling & Software, 2016.

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J Wang et al. Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (gev) model. Climate Dynamics, pages 1–17, 2016.

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David Weisbach. Introduction: Legal decision making under deep uncertainty. The Journal of Legal Studies, 44(S2):S319–S335, 2015.

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A Elbehri et al. Assessments of climate change impacts on global-food productivity and implications for food security and trade: Key messages and recommendations. FAO of the UN, 2015.

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J Elliott & C Müller. The global gridded crop model intercomparison? Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale. FAO of the UN, 2015

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Thomas W Hertel and Uris Lantz C Baldos, editors. Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet. Springer, 2016. Textbook.

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Raffaele Montella et al. Virtualizing CUDA enabled GPGPUs on ARM clusters. In Parallel Processing and Applied Mathematics, pages 3–14. Springer, 2016.

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Tess A Russo et al. Assessment of Agricultural Water Management in Punjab, India, Using Bayesian Methods. In Sustainability of Integrated Water Resources Management, pages 147–162. Springer, 2015.

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Kyle Chard et al. Globus data publication as a service: Lowering barriers to reproducible science. In e-Science (e-Science), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on, pages 401–410. IEEE, 2015.

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Hailiang Du. Examining the fidelity of climate model via shadowing time. In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. AGU, 2015.

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Ian Foster. Lessons from Industry for Science Cyberinfrastructure: Simplicity, Scale, and Sustainability via SaaS/PaaS. ACM, 2015.

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Michael Glotter. US agriculture in a modern dust bowl drought. In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. AGU, 2015.

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Michael Glotter, Joshua Elliott, and C Müller. The agmip global gridded model intercomparison. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 2015.

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Thomas Hertel. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in india. In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. AGU, 2015.

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T.W. Hertel, J. Steinbuks, and W.E. Tyner. What is the social value of second generation biofuels? In presented by Jev Steinbuks at the AAEA meetings, San Francisco, CA, 2015.

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T.W. Hertel, J. Steinbuks, and W.E. Tyner. What is the social value of second generation biofuels? In flash presentation by Tom Hertel at the IPCC Food Security Summit, Dublin, Ireland, 2015.

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Elisabeth Moyer. Precipitation and atmospheric moisture transport responses to increased infrared opacity. In APS Meeting Abstracts, 2016.

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Quan Pham, Tanu Malik, Boris Glavic, and Ian Foster. Ldv: Light-weight database virtualization. In Data Engineering (ICDE), 2015 IEEE 31st International Conference on, pages 1179–1190. IEEE, 2015.

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David Pollard, Robert DeConto, Won Chang et al. Large-Ensemble modeling of last deglacial and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 2015.

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Tess Russo. Using bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India. In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. Agu, 2015.

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Tess Russo. A national groundwater model with improved resolution of deep groundwater dynamics. In 2016 NGWA Groundwater Summit. Ngwa, 2016.

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Shanshan Sun. Examining the linear regimes of the community earth system model (cesm). In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. Agu, 2015.

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Shanshan Sun. Using arm observations to test soil moisture dynamics in climate models. In 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. Agu, 2015.

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William Brock and Anastasios Xepapadeas. Climate change policy under polar amplification. Technical report, Athens University of Economics and Business, 2016.

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William Brock, Anastasios Xepapadeas, et al. Spatial heat transport, polar amplification and climate change policy. Technical report, Athens University of Economics and Business, 2015.

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Y. Cai, A. Golub, T.W. Hertel, and K.L. Judd. The effect of climate and technological uncertainty in crop yields on the optimal path of global land use. Working paper, Under review with PNAS, 2016.

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Y. Cai et al. The effect of uncertainty in crop yields on the optimal path of global land use. Working paper, R&R in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016.

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Uris Baldos et al. Climate change adaptation through agricultural R&D investments: Implications for food security and the environment. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2015.

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Uris Baldos et al. On the linkages in U.S. public R&D spending, knowledge capital and agricultural productivity growth: A bayesian approach. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2015.

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Alla Golub, Yongyang Cai, Thomas Hertel, and Jevgenijs Steinbuks. Energy price uncertainty and global land use. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2015.

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Farzad Taheripour et al. Agricultural production, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in india. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2015.

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Di Luccio, D. et al., Some remarks about a community open source Lagrangian pollutant transport and dispersion model. Procedia Computer Science, 113, 490-495, 2017

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Montella, R., et al. WaComM: A parallel Water quality Community Model for pollutant transport and dispersion operational predictions. In SITIS, IEEE, 2016

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Hailiang Du and Leonard A. Smith. The skill of north american multi-model ensemble seasonal forecast. in preparation for the Monthly Weather Review, 2016.

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J W Elliott and C Muller. The AgGRID Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). Imperial College Press and the American Society of Agronomy, 2015.

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